巴菲特回答说:

我不研究宏观问题。和宏观相关的问题,我们根本不看不听……一般的投资顾问公司的套路都是:把他们的经济学家拉出来,讲讲各种大的宏观格局,然后接下来应该怎么做。我们觉得那些都是胡扯。』


宏观经济虽然重要,但是很难弄懂。所以想用这个东西来指导自己的投资,不仅没有好处,还会起到反作用。


介绍两位名人的故事:


No.1从宏观投机到微观深耕的凯恩斯

 

早年他最青睐外汇与期货投资,因其与宏观经济的关联最为紧密。他坚信,只要吃透宏观数据、精准把握经济周期,盈利便水到渠成。

 

但现实却给了他沉重一击。这一阶段的凯恩斯,亏损次数远多于盈利。1920年,他依据理论预判英镑升值,大举做空法郎、德国马克与意大利里拉,初期曾斩获巨额利润,然而短短4周后市场逆转,欧洲货币集体对英镑升值,他惨遭平仓,前期收益化为乌有。类似的预测失误屡见不鲜,据统计1922至1929年间的七年中,他有五年的投资收益跑输市场指数,业绩惨淡至极。

 

直至20世纪30年代,凯恩斯的投资哲学发生了彻底转变。此时他已出任剑桥大学国王学院财务主管,肩负打理校产的重任,此前的投机风格已不再适用。这位顶尖宏观经济学家毅然放弃了经济形势预测,转而深耕个股——寻找价值被低估的企业,大量买入并长期持有,彻底成为价值投资的坚定践行者。

 

这一转变为他带来了丰厚回报。在之后的十五年里,他管理的投资组合年化收益率攀升至9%左右,而同期英国股市整体下跌15%;若将时间线拉长至1925至1946年,其管理的国王学院全权委托组合年化收益率更是高达15.21%,远超同期英国股指8.08%的表现。

 

凯恩斯在给朋友的信中揭示了转变的核心原因:“宏观经济固然重要,但影响其运行的因素纷繁复杂,常人难以驾驭;相比之下,识别价值被低估的优质企业反而更容易。”他后来更明确指出,市场走势因“动物精神”存在极大不确定性,无法量化的未知是投机者的死敌,而聚焦企业内在价值才能把握确定性机会。

 


No.2宏观投资特例--索罗斯

 

 

索罗斯的成功,离不开远超常人的信息质量与解读能力以其做空英镑的经典案例为例,1992年英国加入欧洲汇率机制后,陷入了政策困境——两德统一后德国为抑制通胀持续加息,而英国正处衰退期亟需降息刺激经济,货币抱团机制使英国陷入两难。索罗斯预判德英两国政策终将冲突,且德国大概率会优先自保。

 

真正的关键信号来自德国央行行长施勒辛格的表态。在《华尔街日报》的访谈中,施勒辛格暗示“欧洲货币体系不稳定需通过部分国家货币贬值解决”,虽未明指,但索罗斯立刻洞悉其深意:德国不会为维护其他 成员国汇率牺牲自身利益。他随即下令先做空经济最弱的意大利里拉,获利后乘胜追击做空英镑,最终单日净赚10亿美元,最终总收益超20亿美元。

 

可见,宏观投资的成功不仅需要深厚的专业积淀,更依赖直接且独特的核心信息。对多数普通人而言,日常接触的多是媒体评论、二手分析等浅层信息,很难复刻这样的成功。

 

我们普通人如何做呢?


答案是在可知领域深耕

 

沉迷宏观分析只会陷入信息汪洋,真正有效的投资是聚焦微观问题,比如:

 

- 消费者为何选择这家公司的产品或服务?

- 这家公司相较竞争对手的核心差异是什么?

- 哪些因素可能导致这家公司彻底失败?

 

结合巴菲特的投资智慧,投资的关键在于厘清“重要且可知”的事——若一件事无关紧要或难以捉摸,便无需耗费精力。以下这些“可知”之事,更值得倾注心力:

 

- 自身的投资期限长短及对应的资产配置策略;

- 国内外指数基金中,哪家的费率与成本更低;

- 若持有境外美元等外币,如何通过现金管理提升收益。

……

 

把精力聚焦于这些具体问题,反而能为长期投资回报奠定更坚实的基础。


 

1. 为什么“风险”比“收益”更难懂?

 

“风险”这个词,哪怕是没接触过投资的人也听过,但你会发现,要给它下一个准确的定义,其实很难。

 

比如“收益”,所有人的理解都一致:就是投资后拿到的利润,能精准量化——年化3%、10%还是20%,一算就清楚。但提到“风险”,大家的说法就五花八门了:

 

- 有人觉得是“会不会亏钱的概率”;

- 有人认为是“资产价格涨跌幅的大小”;

- 还有人把它等同于“突然发生的黑天鹅事件”。

 

这些理解都不算错,却都不完整。这种概念上的模糊,直接导致了风险“难以被度量”。你从没听过有人说“这个产品风险是20%”,但如果说“这个产品可能亏20%”,又会引发新的疑问:

 

- 这个“可能”是指投资10次亏2次,还是100个人买有20人亏?

- 亏20%是短期波动,还是会一直亏到本金只剩80%?

- 历史上同类产品有没有过类似亏损,当时是怎么收场的?

 

这些疑问没有标准答案,也正是P2P投资者踩坑的核心原因:即便平台标注了“高风险”,但由于没人能说清“高风险”具体意味着“亏多少、概率多大”,投资者就容易心存侥幸——“别人都没亏,我应该也不会有事”,最终在模糊的风险认知中投入全部积蓄。

 

2. 顶级专家都会栽的风险坑

 

别以为只有普通投资者会被风险“迷惑”,即便最顶尖的金融专家,也可能因为误判风险栽大跟头。2021年Archegos资本管理公司爆雷事件,就是最典型的例子。

 

Archegos的创始人比尔·黄(Bill Hwang)并非金融新人——他曾是华尔街知名对冲基金老虎亚洲的核心成员,凭借精准的股票投资一度积累了巨额财富。2013年创立Archegos后,他提出了一个看似“稳赚”的策略:通过“总收益互换”工具,用少量自有资金撬动数十倍杠杆,重仓押注几只他认为“稳涨”的股票(如维亚康姆、 Discovery等)。

 

为了让这个策略落地,比尔·黄组建了一支专业团队:核心成员包括前高盛、摩根士丹利的交易员,还有擅长量化分析的数学家——他们会用模型测算每只股票的“下跌概率”,甚至通过压力测试模拟“股价跌30%”的极端情况,确保风险在“可控范围”内。

 

最初几年,这个策略确实奏效:2020年全球股市波动中,Archegos的持仓股票逆势上涨,基金规模从2019年的15亿美元飙升至2021年初的100亿美元,年化收益一度超过50%。当时不少投行都愿意给它加杠杆,甚至主动推荐股票,因为“模型显示风险极低”。

 

但市场从不会按数学模型走。2021年3月,维亚康姆突然宣布增发股票,导致股价单日暴跌27%;紧接着,Discovery等多只重仓股也因业绩不及预期大幅下跌。由于杠杆率高达5-8倍,股价的小幅下跌就会引发巨额亏损——短短10天内,Archegos的100亿美元本金亏得只剩几亿美元,还欠高盛、摩根士丹利等投行近100亿美元,最终只能申请破产。

 

事后复盘时,华尔街分析师才发现:Archegos的模型只算了“单只股票下跌的风险”,却没考虑“多只重仓股同时下跌”的关联性风险——这种“模型外的风险”,正是比尔·黄和他的专业团队最开始忽略的。就像巴菲特后来评价的:“用数学公式计算风险,就像用尺子量风暴的强度,看似精准,实则脱离现实。”


3. 普通投资者该如何应对风险?

 

既然风险如此难捉摸,普通人就只能“躺平不投资”吗?当然不是。关键在于:别去“猜测风险会不会来”,而是先想“风险来了该怎么办”——也就是直接衡量“风险发生后的结果”,而非纠结“风险发生的概率”。

 

具体来说,买入任何金融产品前,先问自己两个问题:

 

1. 如果它的价格跌了一半,我能说清原因吗?(比如买股票型基金,跌50%可能是经济衰退、行业政策变化,还是公司业绩暴雷?)

2. 真跌了一半,我有应对办法吗?(是继续持有等反弹,还是补仓摊薄成本,或是止损离场?)

 

如果这两个问题答不上来,这笔投资就别做。比如你想买沪深300指数基金,先想清楚:跌50%可能是因为全球经济危机、A股整体估值回调;应对办法可以是“不割肉,每月定投拉低均价”——能想明白这两点,就说明你真正考虑了风险结果,而非只盯着“年化收益10%”的诱惑。

 

可能有人会问:为什么是“跌一半”,不是30%或60%?其实“50%”不是精确数字,而是基于投资史的经验总结——不管是股票、基金,还是曾经的P2P、信托,“毫无征兆跌40%-50%”的情况并不少见(比如2008年A股跌65%、2020年美股熔断跌34%)。提前做好“跌一半”的准备,本质上是放弃“侥幸心理”,用最坏的结果来验证自己的承受能力。


事后都易,当下最难。不写下来,如何知道自己是怎么想的,怎么做的。


投资记录

本周交易:无

当前持仓:港币按0.913做汇率换算。


上周持仓

本周持仓

持仓平平淡淡,没有什么要说的。


财报&阅读

本周翻译了伯克希尔2025年致股东信,巴菲特先生写下了最后一封致股东信,我码起鼠胆来手动翻译一下,收获颇多,心得记录如下:


花了近一周的空余时间才爬完2025年的巴菲特致股东信,机翻会快一些,谁叫我是个专挑复杂路线的中登呢,必然是错漏百出,但好歹是自己成长的记录,怀念的意义大于实用的价值。

在翻译整理的过程中,对一些问题有了更深刻的思考和认知,分类陈述。

个人修养
【“
我早就告诉过你了”这句话就从来没有在查理的字典里出现过!】

这样的查理很难让人不肃然起敬,他的字典里只有于事有补,与人有利的字眼,所以这种于事无补,与人不利话从来没从查理口中出来过。

再次反省自己和家人的相处,还是有很多场景里出现“我早就告诉过你了”的表述,尤其是在孩子面前,没有完美的世界,只有更加可控和克制的自己!

人生追求
认真选择你的榜样,然后模仿他。你永不完美,但一直趋向完美!

你希望你的讣告上怎么描述你,就下决心去过那样的生活。

当你通过任何方式帮助到他人,你就是在帮助这个世界。友好并不花钱,但却价值无限。

在成为什么样的人的问题上给出了具体可行的方式。

第一是认真挑选学习榜样但不用苛求完美。成不了汤姆·墨菲,成不了OC,但可以成为更好的自己。

第二是反过来想,总是反过来想,从最终的结果倒推你想要的生活。想想自己的讣告上应该怎么描述自己的一生。

第三,友好是无价的,而我自己在很多时候(尤其是陌生环境)高冷多过热情,漠视多过友好,目标重于过程。我可能是个好的业务搭档,但还谈不上是一个好人。

关于财富
在很多年里我一直在观察拙劣的财富转移,比如政治动荡和朝代更替。

我们选CEO一定要避开那些目标是65岁就退休的人,为了炫富的人和期待开创一个时代的人。

随着时间的推移,我们的管理层有责任让自己变得非常富有,而不是渴望成为一个王朝的统治者或者财富的看守者。

任何时候改变都不迟。牢记美国给予的无限机会。但有时任性和贪婪会不可避免的破坏掉奖励。

在自己天量财富的处理上和伯克希尔CEO人选上的论述,刷新了我对财富和慈善的认知,如果财富一直只成为少数人堆砌和炫耀的资本,那总有一天会通过拙劣的方式来实现财富的重新分配,想想那些政治动荡和朝代更替吧,哪一个不是财富的重新分配。慈善或许是打破轮回的唯一出口。

人活到最高出,最大的仁慈就是为他人赚钱,成就他人比成就自己更容易获得本质上的快乐!

到此刻我才理解三几年前在张五常教授的书中读到的大搞慈善的建议。

于公司而言,最好的管理层就是给自己赚钱的管理层,拥有股东意识和股东回报是管理层靠谱的基本前提。可谁又会承认自己缺乏股东意识,谁又会嫌弃股东回报呢?解决办法只有一个,选认为这样做的利益更大的人!

关于任性和贪婪,它天生就是我们成长的绊脚石,无论怎么克制,依然深刻在人性中,伟大如巴神的字典里依然在任性和贪婪下画波浪线!

关于家庭
我统计了文中巴菲特直接或间接提起前妻苏珊的地方,一共多达6次。
a、第一套房子距离姻亲家只有两个街区。
b、第一任妻子苏珊是1950届毕业的。
c、很庆幸遇到了我的两任妻子,
d、所有的孩子都继承了妈妈的优秀基因。
e、但我从不敢奢望与他们的母亲平起平坐。
f、我和他们的妈妈都为此感到欣慰。


每一次提起苏珊都能看出巴菲特对她持久而真切的情感。在感情上,没有人能成功的标榜是独步天下的高手,伟大如巴菲特,睿智如芒格都曾在感情的世界里一败涂地,一地鸡毛。对于普通人而言,感情无非是从一个漩涡爬进下一个漩涡,仅此而已。或者说所有的经历都是为了成长吧。对于东大的价头而言,能从祖师爷那学到点啥呢?我想想可能有如下几个方面。

生活第一,投资第二”诚如OC所言。永远不要搞错happy wife 与happy life 的顺序。

感情的事,没有百分百,只有愿意与否。与其防火防盗,疑神疑鬼,不如坦坦荡荡,接受结果,大不了与自己和解,与世界和解!这样才有足够活下去的空间,才有足够爱下去的勇气!

防御的深度决定了感情的浓度!如果一直自以为是幸存者,又有什么力量能把我变成受害者呢?

如果不是为青史留名或为生民立命,就没必要将家庭置于任何事情之下,家庭是唯一需要且值得人对等付出的组织,而其他组织大概率是想薅你的羊毛。这个逻辑搞反了必然给自己带来人生的灾难。


育儿实录

本周大小宝陆续出中考成绩,欢天喜地的时刻。


小宝说英语满分,数学98,语文听说是年纪最高99。喔,这小妮子在前四年都刷新了姐姐的成绩记录。我顺便和小宝讨论还有哪些姐姐创造的纪录可以被你刷新,比如音乐,体育。小宝思考了一下,好像只有成绩能刷新,体育搞不定,乐器也觉得好难!哈哈哈,有一个怪物级的姐姐会是一种什么感受。同时问老姐,你先出的牌,你的记录都可能被小妹儿刷新,除非你哪哪都拿第一。有个学霸老妹是啥感觉。大宝直接怼了一句“又不和我同年高考,随便!”有意思回答!目标如此清晰!再过几年,就要给大宝铺垫高考之后的路该怎么走了!


大宝按三主科成绩,在整个统考中排名300左右,估计人数在3000+,这个成绩很不错了,前10%的样子,考虑学校之间的整体差距,校级排名还能往前提一提。三主科相对是她的弱项,她一直和我讲:班上好多人都提前学的预科,他们都提前学完了。而我家从来没有上过学校以外的任何文化辅导课。所以这个弱势也是个优势。第一,孩子会有一种追赶的心态去学习,第二,她只能寒暑假自学去弥补别人抢预科。第三,辅导课的时间留着养身体拓展其他,后劲更足。我经常用她的800米长跑来安慰她,让其他人领先,知识就只有那么多,赛道就那么长,没啥好担忧的。等下半场了,你会一骑绝尘的。就算有那么几个牛人,你拿个第二第三也挺好!喔,要相信牛人并不常见!能超过过你的牛人就更少了!主打一个无极限夸夸!


从7科成绩来看,在学校听说是班级第一,年纪第五,相对而言,偏科的情况不严重,比其他人好吧。也远超之前定的班级前三,年级前十五的目标。所以这个成绩是可以让她高兴一下的成绩,继续吧少年!看好你!


大宝被夸的时候解释说,班上有个一直第一的XXR因为感冒缺考,后来她告诉同学,在家里补考分数多少多少。周边同学都不相信、私下里说她在家考试的时候一定用了科技与狠活。


我补充:为什么要在家补考,身体也是实力的一部分,否则我们花那么多时间,精力和资源练身体,图个寂寞呀。还有,她为什么要在同学面前说自己补考的分数,还遥遥领先。爸爸觉得可能是想赢但输不起的感觉吧(大宝表示非常符合她平时的表现)。等你真正全面超过她以后还是要提防一下。玩不过还输不起的人不是值得深交的朋友。(之前就在其他渠道知道这个小盆友对我家大宝颐指气使的,我家大宝还像个小白兔似的,我可是一直忍到现在才有机会和娃聊一聊,哎)。大宝完全同意我的看法,并反馈最近关系疏远了很多,好多人都不想和她玩一起。


运动记录

本周跑步1次共计5km,带娃骑行一次约20km,本周体重65.24kg(169cm)。体重继续处于高位,但好歹在向下波动了,达到标准公差范围内指日可待呀!

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASEOmaha, 

NE (BRK.A; BRK.B) –

November 10, 2025

来自美国奥玛哈的即时报道,

内布拉斯加州家具城(伯克希尔A股;伯克希尔B股)

2025年11月10号


Today, Warren E. Buffett converted 1,800 A shares into 2,700,000 B shares in order to give these B shares to four family foundations: 1,500,000 shares to The Susan Thompson Buffett Foundation and

400,000 shares to each of The Sherwood Foundation, The Howard G. Buffett Foundation and NoVo Foundation. These donations have been delivered today.

Mr. Buffett’s comments to his fellow shareholders follow:

今天,沃伦E.巴菲特将1800股伯克希尔A股拆分并捐赠给四个家族基金。1800股伯克希尔A股拆分成270万股伯克希尔B股,其中150万股给苏珊·汤普森·巴菲特基金会,其他三个基金会分别获得40万股,他们是:舍伍德基金会、霍华德·G·巴菲特基金会和诺沃基金会。这些捐赠今天起立即生效!对此巴菲特先生向各位股东解释如下:


To My Fellow Shareholders

致我的股东朋友们


I will no longer be writing Berkshire’s annual report or talking endlessly at the annual meeting. As the British would say, I’m “going quiet.”

我将不再写伯克希尔股东年度报告(致股东信),也不会在年度股东大会上喋喋不休。英谚有云,我是时候该退居二线了。


Sort of.

分类陈述如下。


Greg Abel will become the boss at yearend. He is a great manager, a tireless worker and an honest communicator. Wish him an extended tenure.

格雷格·阿贝尔将在年底成为伯克希尔的领导者,他是一个非常出色的经理人,对工作充满热情,也是一个忠诚的倾述对象。祝愿他能有超长任期!


I will continue talking to you and my children about Berkshire via my annual Thanksgiving message. Berkshire’s individual shareholders are averyspecial group who are unusually generous in sharing their gains with others less fortunate. I enjoy the chance to keep in touch with you. 

我将会通过每年的感恩节致词来和我的孩子们以及大家继续谈论伯克希尔。伯克希尔的个人股东是一个非常特殊的群体,他们非常慷慨的将自己的财富分享给有需要的人。我非常享受和你们厮混在一起。


Indulge me this year as I first reminisce a bit. After that, I will discuss the plans for distribution of my Berkshire shares. Finally, I will offer a few business and personal observations.

今年的股东信首先请允许我稍微回忆一下过往,然后再谈论我捐赠伯克希尔股票的事,最后我会提供一些商业建议和个人意见。



As Thanksgiving approaches, I’m grateful and surprised by my luck in being alive at 95.

作为感恩节的庆祝,我非常庆幸能活到95岁高龄!


When I was young, this outcome didnotlook like a good bet. Early on, I nearly died.

It was 1938 and Omaha hospitals were then thought of by its citizens as either Catholic or Protestant, a classification that seemed natural at the time.

在我年幼的时候,并没有预兆我可以活这么久。我很小的时候,差不多夭折了。在1938年,奥玛哈医院还被人们认为是天主教或者新教,这样的分类在当时非常自然。


Our family doctor, Harley Hotz, was a friendly Catholic who made house calls toting a black bag. Dr. Hotz called me Skipper and never charged much for his visits. 

我们的家庭医生哈雷.霍茨,是一个友好的天主教徒,他家的房子修得像一个黑色的包裹。霍茨医生叫我机长,每次到访都收费很少。


When I experienced a bad bellyache in 1938, Dr.Hotz came by and, after probing a bit, told me I would be OK in the morning. He then went home, had dinner and played a little bridge. Dr.Hotz couldn’t, however, get my somewhat peculiar symptoms out of his mind and later that night he dispatched me to St. Catherine’s Hospital for an emergency appendectomy. 

在1938年我有一次腹痛,霍茨医生过来了,做了简单的探查后告诉我,明天早上我就会好的。然后他回家了,吃了晚饭还玩了一会桥牌。那天晚上霍茨医生甚至都没告诉我我的病症是什么就把我转去了圣凯瑟琳医院,紧急做了阑尾切除手术。


During the next three weeks, I felt like I was in a nunnery, and began enjoying my new “podium.” I liked to talk – yes, even then – and the nuns embraced me.

在接下来的三周,我感觉自己进入了修道院,并且开始喜欢这种新体验!我任何时候都喜欢说--好的,因为这样可以得到护士的拥抱。


To top things off, Miss Madsen, my third-grade teacher, told my 30 classmates to each write me a letter. I probably threw away the letters from the boys but read and reread those from the girls; hospitalization had its rewards.

最爽的是,我三年级的老师马德森小姐让我班上30个同学都写封信给我。我那时候大概率把男孩子的信直接丢了,而女孩子的信会一读再读,住院治疗居然有额外奖励!


The highlight of my recovery – which actually was dicey for much of the first week – was a gift from my wonderful Aunt Edie. She brought me a very professional-looking fingerprinting set, and I promptly fingerprinted all of my attending nuns. (I was probably the first Protestant kid they

had seen at St. Catherine’s and they didn’t know what to expect.)

恢复过程中最有成就感的是一个礼物--指纹采集器,这个礼物在住院第一周里还不太确定是什么,后来我最棒的伊迪阿姨给我买了这个外观时尚的指纹采集器,我将所有照顾过我的护士的指纹都采集起来。(我想,在圣凯瑟琳医院大概率我是第一个被他们看见的新教徒孩子,她们不认为我会来的。)


My theory – totally nutty, of course – was that someday a nun would go bad and the FBI would find that they had neglected to fingerprint nuns. The FBI and its director, J. Edgar Hoover, had become revered by Americans in the 1930s, and I envisioned Mr. Hoover, himself, coming to Omaha to inspect my invaluable collection. I further fantasized that J. Edgar and I would quickly identify and apprehend the wayward nun. National fame seemed certain.

我的想法是(当然完全是胡扯的)将来有一天,护士会变坏,然后FBI会发现他们漏了给护士录取指纹。FBI以及他们的负责人J·埃德加·胡佛会来奥玛哈检查我采集的天价指纹,在1930年时,FBI很受人尊敬。在后来的日子,我一直梦想着有一天J·埃德加会过来找我,会逮捕哪些琢磨不透的护士。然而,一切如常,并没有什么发生。


Obviously, my fantasy never materialized. But, ironically, some years later it became clear that I should have fingerprinted J. Edgar himself as he became disgraced for misusing his post.

很显然,我的美梦没有成真。但是,讽刺的是,几年后,我发现我应该采集J·埃德加自己的指纹,他因为滥用职权,成为了耻辱!


Well, that was Omaha in the 1930s, when a sled, a bicycle, a baseball glove and an electric train were coveted by me and my friends. Let’s look at a few other kids from that era, who grew up very nearby and greatly influenced my lifebutof whom I was for long unaware.

好吧,那是1930年代的奥玛哈,一个雪橇,一辆自行车,一个棒球手套或者电车都是我和我的小伙伴非常着迷的东西。让我们一起来看看那个区域里长大的另一个小伙伴,他和我们生长在相同的环境下,对我的生活产生了巨大的影响,但是我当时一直没有意识到他的存在。


I’ll begin with Charlie Munger, my best pal for 64 years. In the 1930s, Charlie lived a block away from the house I have owned and occupied since 1958.

我要说起查理芒格了,和我搭档64年的伙伴,最好的伙伴。1930年芒格的住所和我1958年的住所,只一街之隔。


Early on, I missed befriending Charlie by a whisker. Charlie, 6 ⅔ years older than I, worked in the summer of 1940 at my grandfather’s grocery store, earning $2 for a 10-hour day. (Thrift runs deep in Buffett blood.) The following year I did similar work at the store, but I never met Charlie

until 1959 when he was 35 and I was 28.

早年,我差一点点就和芒格成为好朋友了,芒格大我六七岁,1940年的夏天,他在我爷爷的杂货铺里工作,10小时2美元(巴菲特家族的血液里一直流传着节约二字),第二年我也在爷爷的杂货铺干着相同的工作,就差那么一点点就相遇了,等我们真正相识的时候已经是1959年,当时查理35岁,我28岁。


After serving in World War II, Charlie graduated from Harvard Law and then moved permanently to California. Charlie, however, forever talked of his early years in Omaha as formative.

在二战中服完兵役,查理毕业于哈佛法学院,然后就一直定居在加利佛尼亚。当然,查理一直说,在奥玛哈的早年生活对他的成长有着不可磨灭的影响。


For more than 60 years, Charlie had a huge impact on me and could not have been a better teacher and protective “big brother.” We had differences butneverhad an argument. “I told you so” was not

in his vocabulary.

超过60年的时间,查理一直扮演着我的“大师兄”,时刻保护我,对我的人生有着重大的影响。我们之间有过意见不同,但从未有过口舌之争。“我早就告诉过你了”这句话就从来没有出现在查理的字典里!


In 1958, I bought my first and only home. Of course, it was in Omaha, located about two miles from where I grew up (loosely defined), less than two blocks from my in-laws, about six blocks from the Buffett grocery store and a 6-7-minute drive from the office building where I have worked

for 64 years. 

1958年,我买了人生第一套房子也是唯一一套,它位于奥玛哈,离我生长的地方只有2英里(宽泛定义),离前姻亲家只有两个街区,离巴菲特杂货铺只有6个街区,开车去我工作64年的办公楼只有6到7分钟。


Let’s move on to another Omahan, Stan Lipsey. Stan sold the Omaha Sun Newspapers (weeklies) to Berkshire in 1968 and a decade later moved to Buffalo at my request. The Buffalo Evening News, owned by a Berkshire affiliate, was then locked in a battle to the death with its morning competitor who published Buffalo’sonlySunday paper. And we were losing.

让我们转到另一个奥玛哈土著身上吧,斯坦·利普西。在1968年斯坦把奥玛哈太阳报(周刊)卖给了伯克希尔,并在十年后应我的要求去了布法罗市。布法罗晚报由伯克希尔的子公司负责运营,处在生死存亡的边沿。因为布法罗晚报的宿敌出版布法罗市唯一的周日报,我们正处于失利中。


Stan eventually built our new Sunday product, and for some years our paper – formerly hemorrhaging cash – earned over 100% annually (pre-tax) on our $33 million investment. This was important money to Berkshire in the early 1980s.

斯坦最终发行了布法罗周日报,几年之后,我们的税前账面利润已超过100%(斯坦介入前一直在亏损),我们在布法罗晚报的投资是3300万。在1980年,这笔钱对伯克希尔非常重要。


Stan grew up about five blocks from my home. One of Stan’s neighbors was Walter Scott, Jr.Walter, you will remember, brought MidAmerican Energy to Berkshire in 1999. He was also a valued Berkshire director until his death in 2021 and a very close friend. Walter was Nebraska’s

philanthropic leader for decades and both Omaha and the state carries his imprint.

斯坦在离我家5个街区的地方长大,斯坦的一个邻居叫沃尔特·斯各特,爵士斯各特,大家应该记得,在1999年为伯克希尔买下中美洲能源公司。他一直担任是伯克希尔的懂事,直到2021年去世,是我非常亲密的朋友。沃尔特担任过内布拉斯加慈善机构的领导人数十年,奥玛哈及内布拉斯加州都留下了沃尔特的传奇。


Walter attended Benson High School, which I was scheduled to attend as well – until my dad surprised everyone in 1942 by beating a four-term incumbent in a Congressional race. Life is full of surprises. 

沃尔特就读本森高中,我也准备去本森高中的。但是我爸爸给了所有人惊喜,在1942年竞选国会立法委员会成功,打败了一位连任四届的对手。生活充满了惊喜!


Wait, there’s more.

大家稍等,还有很多要谈的。


In 1959, Don Keough and his young family lived in a home located directly across the street from my house and about 100 yards away from where the Munger family had lived. Don was then a coffee salesman but was destined to become president of Coca-Cola as well as a devoted director of

Berkshire.When I met Don, he was earning $12,000 a year while he and his wife Mickie were raising five children, all destined for Catholic schools (with tuition requirements).

1959年,唐.基奥和他的家人住在我家对面的房子里,离芒格故居约100码距离。那时候的唐是一名咖啡销售员,但他命中注定会成为可口可乐的总裁和伯克希尔的董事。当我遇见唐时,他年赚1.2万美元,和他的妻子一起抚养5个孩子,他们都上天主教开办的学校(需要付费的那种)。


Our families became fast friends. Don came from a farm in northwest Iowa and graduated from Omaha’s Creighton University.  Early on, he married Mickie, an Omaha girl. After joining Coke, Don went on to become legendary around the globe.

我和唐的家庭很快就成为了好朋友。唐来自爱荷华州西北部的农场,毕业于奥玛哈的克雷顿大学。他很早就和米奇结婚,米奇是奥玛哈当地女孩。然后加入了可口可乐,后来唐就成了世界名人。


In 1985, when Don was president of Coke, the company launched its ill-fated New Coke. Don made a famous speech in which he apologized to the public and reinstated “Old” Coke. This change of heart took place after Don explained that Coke incoming mail addressed to “Supreme Idiot” was promptly delivered to his desk. His “withdrawal” speech is a classic and can be viewed on YouTube. He cheerfully acknowledged that, in truth, the Coca-Cola product belonged to the public and not to the company. Sales subsequently soared.

1985年,唐担任可口可乐总裁时,公司正在推出它那不幸的可乐(新口味的可口可乐)。后来唐做了一场著名的演讲,公开向可口可乐的消费者道歉并承诺恢复原有味道的可口可乐。后来唐解释说,推出新口味可乐后,可口可乐的收件箱里堆满了投诉我们是“超级白痴”的邮件,都快溢出到他的办公桌上了。而唐的“撤回”演讲是一份杰作,现在还能在优酷上回看。唐爽快的承认,可口可乐属于大家的,而不是属于可口可乐公司的。随后,可口可乐的销量开始回升。


You can watch Don on CharlieRose. com in a wonderful interview. (Tom Murphy and Kay Graham have a couple of gems as well.) Like Charlie Munger, Don forever remained a Midwestern boy, enthusiastic, friendly and American to the core.

查尔斯顿的网站上有一个非常棒的采访。(汤姆·墨菲和凯·格雷厄姆也有几篇优秀的采访)和查理芒格一样,唐永远保持中西部牛仔的风格:热情,友好,很美国!


Finally, Ajit Jain, born and raised in India, as well as Greg Abel, our Canadian CEO-to-be, each lived in Omaha for several years late in the 20thCentury. Indeed, in the 1990s, Greg lived only a few blocks away from me on Farnam Street, though we never met at the time. Can it be that there is some magic ingredient in Omaha’s water?

最后是阿吉特.贾恩,土生土长的印度人,还有我们的格雷格.阿贝尔,我们的准首席执行官,加拿大人。在20世纪的头几年他们都来到奥玛哈定居。确切的说,格雷格在1990年就住在费尔南街,离我只有几个街区。但是我们不经常见面。(大家这么迷恋奥玛哈,)难道是奥玛哈的水土具有灵气吗?


I lived a few teenage years in Washington, DC (when my dad was in Congress) and in 1954 I took what I thought would be a permanent job in Manhattan. There I was treated wonderfully by Ben Graham and Jerry Newman and made many life-long friends. New York had unique assets – and still does. Nevertheless, in 1956, after only 1½ years, I returned to Omaha, never to wander again.

我在十来岁的时候在华盛顿住过几年(是父亲在国会任职期间)。在1954年,我在曼哈顿获得了一个梦寐以求的我认为可能会干一辈子的工作。我被本.格雷厄姆和杰里·纽曼特殊关照,我在那里交到了好多朋友,持续一生的朋友。纽约拥有独一无二的优势,现在依然如此(指华尔街在金融行业的优势地位)。但不管怎样,我在1956年,差不多是入职一年半左右就回到了奥玛哈,从此不再游荡!


Subsequently, my three children, as well as several grandchildren, were raised in Omaha. My children always attended public schools (graduating from the same high school that educated my dad (class of 1921), my first wife, Susie (class of 1950) as well as Charlie, Stan Lipsey, Irv and Ron Blumkin, who were key to growing Nebraska Furniture Mart, and Jack Ringwalt (class of 1923), who founded National Indemnity and sold it to Berkshire in 1967 where it became the base upon

which our huge P/C operation was constructed.

接着,我的三个孩子以及数个孙辈都土生土长在奥玛哈。我的孩子们通常上公立学校,毕业于同一个高中,我爸爸就是那个高中毕业的,他是1921届的,同时还有好多人都是这个高中毕业,我的第一任妻子苏珊是1950届,斯坦·利普西,警官和罗恩·布鲁姆金,罗恩是内布拉斯加州家具城发展中最关键的人物,还有杰克·林沃尔特(1923届),杰克创建了国民赔偿保险,并在1967年被伯克希尔收购。国民赔偿保险公司是伯克希尔个人保险业务的基石,我们的个人保险业务就是由此而来。


Our country has many great companies, great schools, great medical facilities and each definitely has its own special advantages along with talented people. But I feel very lucky to have had the good fortune to make many lifelong friends, to meet both of my wives, to receive a great start in education at public schools, to meet many interesting and friendly adult Omahans when I was very young, and to make a wide variety of friends in the Nebraska National Guard. In short, Nebraska has been home.

我们的国家拥有许多伟大的公司、优秀的学校、先进的医疗设备,每一个突出的方向上都有其独特的优势和优秀的人才。我很幸运能在有生之年和各个方向上的优秀人物相遇相知,并成为一生的朋友,很庆幸遇到了我的两任妻子,很庆幸在公立学校接受良好的教育,很庆幸在我小时候遇到奥玛哈友好且有趣的成年人,很庆幸在内布拉斯加州范围内开展广泛的交友,总之,内布拉斯加是我的家乡。


Looking back I feel that both Berkshire and I did better because of our base in Omaha than if I had resided anywhere else. The center of the United States was a very good place to be born, to raise a family, and to build a business. Through dumb luck, I drew a ridiculously long straw at birth.

回顾过去,如果我生长在其他任何地方,对伯克希尔和我来说,可能都不如生长在奥玛哈。美国的任何一个城市,都非常适合生存,适合养育家庭,适合建立事业,我的出生就像抽中了上上签!


Now let’s move on to my advanced age. My genes haven’t been particularly helpful – the family’s all-time record for longevity (admittedly family records get fuzzy as you work backwards) was 92 until I came along. But I have had wise, friendly and dedicated Omaha doctors, starting with

Harley Hotz, and continuing to this day. At least three times, my life has been saved, each with doctors based within a few miles from my home. (I have given up fingerprinting nurses, however. You can get away with many eccentricities at 95 . . . . . but therearelimits.)

让我们转向我的优点——长寿上面来,我的遗传基因在长寿方面并没有什么特别的帮助,家族记录以来最高的寿命是92岁,直到我超越了这个记录。但是我有聪敏、友好且乐于奉献的奥玛哈医生,从哈雷.霍茨医生开始,一直到现在。至少有三次,我的生命是医生救回来的,每次都得益于医生就在离我家几英里的地方。(当然,我已经放弃了采集护士指纹的癖好,活到95岁,人可能会放弃许多癖好,但我也仅限于此。)


Those who reach old age need a huge dose of good luck, daily escaping banana peels, natural disasters, drunk or distracted drivers, lightning strikes, you name it. But Lady Luck is fickle and –noother term fits –wildlyunfair. In many cases, our leaders and the rich have received far more than their share of luck – which, too often, the recipients prefer

not to acknowledge. 

那些长寿的人们多多少少需要一些运气的加持。人每天都需要躲避香蕉皮、自然灾难、酗酒、盲目驾驶、雷击等可能遇到的意外。但是幸运女神是善变的(没有其他更好的词汇来形容她),这很不公平。在很多时候,我们的领导和富人他们的成功远不只是一点点运气,尽管他们一直不承认这一点。


Dynastic inheritors have achieved lifetime financial independence the moment they emerged from the womb, while others have arrived, facing a hell-hole during their early life or, worse, disabling physical or mental infirmities that rob them of what I have taken for granted. In many heavily-populated parts of the world, I would likely have had a miserable life and my sisters

would have had one even worse.

家族财富继承者在娘胎里就开始庆祝财富自由。而其他人刚来到这个世界,面对的是地狱。更不用说那些生来就身体残疾或者有精神异常的人。他们生来就被剥夺了我们习以为常的一切!如果生在世界上许多人口稠密的地区,我的生活应该会很痛苦,而我妹妹的生活会更痛苦。


I was born in 1930 healthy, reasonably intelligent, white, male and in America. Wow! Thank you, Lady Luck. My sisters had equal intelligence and better personalities than I but faced a much different outlook. Lady Luck continued to drop by during much of my life, but she has better things to do than work with those in their 90s. Luck has its limits. 

我生在1930年,身体健康,智利正常,白色男性,生在美国。喔!感谢幸运女神。我的姐妹们拥有和我相同的智力,但比我有更好的个性,但是有不同的人生预期。在我后来的人生中,幸运女神一再降落在我身上,但是她现在有更重要的事情,而不是一直只关注我们这些90多岁的高龄人士。幸运也是有限的。


Father Time, to the contrary, now finds memoreinteresting as I age. And he is undefeated; for him, everyone ends up on his score card as “wins.” When balance, sight, hearing and memory are all on a persistently downward slope, youknowFather Time is in the neighborhood.

时间是上帝,相反,我对我的年龄越来越感兴趣。时间是永恒不败的,对时间而言所有人都会一败涂地。当身体的平衡能力、视力、听力和记忆里都在下降时,你知道上帝已经离你很近了!


I was late in becoming old – its onset materially varies – but once it appears, it is not to be denied. 

我已经够老了--时间上帝发挥作用的差别还是很大的(让我活到这么老)--但是它一旦出现,将不可挽回!


To my surprise, I generally feel good. Though I move slowly and read with increasing difficulty, I am at the office five days a week where I work with wonderful people. Occasionally, I get a useful idea or am approached with an offer we might not otherwise have received. Because of Berkshire’s size and because of market levels, ideas are few – but not zero.

让我感到高兴的事,我依然感觉良好。尽管我移动很困难,阅读也越来越困难,但是我仍然和有趣的人们在我的办公室里每周工作五天。偶然间,我会有一些有用的想法,或者我会收到其他人给我提供的意想不到的建议。因为伯克希尔的规模和市场行情,好想法越来越少,但还没到完全枯竭的程度。


My unexpected longevity, however, has unavoidable consequences of major importance to my family and the achievement of my charitable objectives.

Let’s explore them.

我这出乎意料的长寿,不可避免的提升了我对家庭的贡献和我在慈善事业上的成就。咱们可以去检查一下。


What Comes Next

接下来将发生什么!


My children are all above normal retirement age, having reached 72, 70 and 67. It would be a mistake to wager that all three – now at their peak in many respects – will enjoy my exceptional luck in delayed aging. To improve the probability that they will dispose of what will essentially be my

entire estate before alternate trustees replace them, I need to step up the pace of lifetime gifts to their three foundations. My children are now at their prime in respect to experience and wisdom but have yet to enter old age. That “honeymoon” period will not last forever.

我的三个孩子智商普通,他们的年纪分别达到了72,70,68岁。他们正处在被关心的顶峰(上有老爸惦记,下有孩子们惦记,中间有伴侣和兄弟姐妹惦记,确实是巅峰),这个时候不合适预测他们会不会像我一样有运气加持享受加时。但为了提高他们在代理人接管前能处理好我的全部财富的概率,我需要在剩余不多的生命里加快对他们三个基金会的帮助。我的孩子正处在经验和能力的巅峰期,但不可避免的已经步入老年,就像“蜜月”不可能永远持续。


Fortunately, a course correction is easy to execute. There is, however, one additional factor to consider: I would like to keep a significant amount of “A” shares until Berkshire shareholders develop the comfort with Greg that Charlie and I long enjoyed. That level of confidence shouldn’t take long. My children are already 100% behind Greg as are the Berkshire directors.

幸运的是,防错机制很容易执行。当然,这里应该需要额外提一下:我会一直持有非常可观的伯克希尔A股,直到伯克希尔股东们和格雷格相处非常融洽,这种融洽我和芒格享受了很多年。建立那种信任不需要很长时间,我的孩子们就和伯克希尔董事们一样,已经百分百支持格雷格。


All three children now have the maturity, brains, energy and instincts to disburse a large fortune. They will also have the advantage of being above ground when I am long gone and, if necessary, can adopt policies both anticipatory and reactive to federal tax policies or other developments affecting philanthropy. They may well need to adapt to a significantly changing world

around them. Ruling from the grave does not have a great record, and I have never had an urge to do so.

我的孩子们在分配财富方面成熟稳重,头脑清晰,精力充沛且直觉灵敏。当我离开后,如有必要,他们能对联邦税率政策和伟大慈善事业的发展做出预判和反应,我相信他们在这方面的能力和优势都在普通人之上。他们也需要让自己适用周围不断变化的世界。没有人死后还能统治这个世界,我也从来没有意愿去这么做!


Fortunately, all three children received a dominant dosage of their genes from their mother. As the decades have passed, I have also become a better model for their thinking and behavior. I will never, however, achieve parity with their mother.

幸运的是,所有的孩子都继承了妈妈的优秀基因。在过去的数十年,我在孩子们的思想和行为上努力成为越来越好的榜样,但我从不敢奢望与他们的母亲平起平坐。


My children have three alternate trustees in case of any premature deaths or disabilities. The alternates are not ranked or tied to a specific child. All three are exceptional humans and wise in the ways of the world. They have no conflicting motives.

我的三个孩子可以轮岗,以免太辛苦导致过早的死亡或残疾。这种轮换不会排序或者固定在某一个孩子身上。他们都是杰出的人,深谙人情世故。他们之间不会互相冲突。


I have assured my children that they donotneed to perform miracles nor fea failures or disappointments. These are inevitable, and I have made my share. They simply need to improve somewhat upon what generally is achieved by government activities and/or private philanthropy, recognizing these other methods of redistribution of wealth have shortcomings as well.

我相信,我的孩子既不会哗众取宠,也不会害怕失败和失望。失败和失望是必然的,我已经做了示范。他们只需要在政策及个人慈善上做一些普通的适应性改变即可,意识到还有其他的方式去分配财富的同时知悉它们带来的缺点。


Early on, I contemplated various grand philanthropic plans. Though I was stubborn, these did not prove feasible. During my many years, I’ve also watched ill-conceived wealth transfers by political hacks, dynastic choices and, yes, inept or quirky philanthropists.

早年间,我设想过宏伟的慈善方案,虽然我是个固执的人,但这些方案最终被证明不可行。在很多年里我一直在观察拙劣的财富转移,比如政治动荡和朝代更替,呵呵,是的,我是个笨拙且古怪的慈善家!


If my children simply do a decent job, they can be certain that their mother and I would be pleased. Their instincts are good and theyeachhave had years of practice with very small sums initially that have been irregularly increased to more than $500 million annually. 

如果我的孩子们只是简单的做着体面的工作,若真能如此,我和他们的妈妈都为此感到欣慰。他们本性醇厚,用小资金训练了很多年,资金总和现在增长到了每年5亿美元。


All threelikeworking long hours to help others, each in their own way.

他们三个人都喜欢用自己的方式不停的去帮助他人。


The acceleration of my lifetime gifts to my children’s foundations in no way reflects any change in my views about Berkshire’s prospects. Greg Abel has more than met the high expectations I had for him when I first thought he should be Berkshire’s next CEO. He understands many of our businesses and personnel far better than I now do, and he is a very fast learner about matters many CEOs don’t even consider. I can’t think of a CEO, a management consultant, an academic, a member of government – you name it – that I would select over Greg to handle your savings and mine.

我在有生之年,通过自己的馈赠给我孩子的基金会发展加速,但这种方法用在伯克希尔身上,我认为没有任何效果。阿贝尔·格雷格的表现超过了我当初想让他接替伯克希尔CEO时的预期。他懂很多的生意,人事工作也比我做的好多了。他对重要事情的学习非常快速,而有些CEO甚至都没思考过这些事情。格雷格是最佳人选,无论你怎么举例,比如管理顾问、教授、政府雇员或其他你我能想到的任何人,都不可能比格雷格更合适接替我的CEO职位。


Greg understands, for example, far more about both the upside potential and the dangers of our P/C insurance business than do a great many long-time P/C executives. My hope is that his health remains good for several decades. With a little luck, Berkshire should require only five or six CEOs over the next century. It should particularly avoid those whose goal is to retire at 65, to become look-at-me rich or to initiate a dynasty.

举个例子,在个人承保业务上格雷格更懂业务的上升空间和风险,而不是做许多高大上的长期规划。我希望他的身体健康能持续好几十年。如果幸运的话,我们直到下个世纪末,伯克希尔也只需要五到六个CEO人选就够了。我们选CEO一定要避开那些目标是65岁就退休的人,为了炫富的人和期待开创一个时代的人。


One unpleasant reality: Occasionally, a wonderful and loyal CEO of the parent or a

subsidiary will succumb to dementia, Alzheimer’s or another debilitating and long-term disease.

一个不幸的事实:母公司或者子公司再出色而忠诚的CEO也可能死于痴呆,老年痴呆,或者其他方面的衰竭,或者其他慢性疾病。


Charlie and I encountered this problem several times and failed to act. This failure can be a huge mistake. The Boardmustbe alert to this possibility at the CEO level and the CEO must be alert to the possibility at subsidiaries. This is easier said than done; I could cite a few examples from the past at major companies. Directors should be alert and speak up is all that I can advise.

查理和我都数次遇到这种问题,我们一筹莫展。这种失败(优秀CEO夭折)是一个巨大的错误。董事会一定要在CEO层面引起重视,CEO一定要在各子公司引起重视。这件事说起来容易做起来难。我可以从过去的许多公司中举出几个例子。负责人应该对此保持警觉并引以为戒,这就是我的建议。


During my lifetime, reformers sought toembarrassCEOs by requiring the disclosure of the compensation of the boss compared to what was being paid to the average employee. Proxy statements promptly ballooned to 100-plus pages compared to 20 or less earlier.

在我的有生之年,让CEO难堪的事是要求他们公开管理层和普通员工的待遇比例。然后代理人的报告从早期的20页激增到100页。



But the good intentions didn’t work; instead they backfired. Based on the majority of my observations – the CEO of company “A” looked at his competitor at company “B” and subtly conveyed to his board that he should be worth more. Of course, he also boosted the pay of directors and was careful who he placed on the compensation committee. The new rules produced envy, not moderation.

是的,好心办坏事了。根据我多年观察--公司A的CEO紧盯着他的竞争对手公司B,巧妙的将“他更有价值”的信息传递给董事会。然后,他会增加董事津贴,并且小心翼翼的安排人员进入薪酬委员会。新的规定产生嫉妒而不是节制。


The ratcheting took on a life of its own. What often bothers very wealthy CEOs – they are human, after all – is that other CEOs are getting even richer. Envy and greed walk hand in hand. And what consultant ever recommended a serious cut in CEO compensation or board payments?

事实已经不受控制的沿着它自己的轨迹发展。让一个富有的CEO感到不安的是一个更富有的CEO,毕竟CEO也是人不是神。嫉妒和贪婪总是同时出现。这样还有谁会建议大幅消减CEO待遇和董事津贴呢?


In aggregate, Berkshire’s businesses have moderately better-than-average prospects, led by a few non-correlated and sizable gems. However, a decade or two from now, there will be many companies that have done better than Berkshire; our size takes its toll.

总而言之,伯克希尔的业务前景会略优与平均水平,基于一些无关但巨大的优势。但是,此后的一二十年,一定会有许多公司做的比伯克希尔更好,我们的规模会拖后腿。


Berkshire has less chance of a devastating disaster than any business I know. And, Berkshire has a more shareholder-conscious management and board than almostanycompany with which I am familiar (and I’ve seen a lot). Finally, Berkshire will always be managed in a manner that will make its existence an asset to the United States and eschew activities that would lead it to become a

supplicant. Over time, our managers should grow quite wealthy – they have important responsibilities – but do not have the desire for dynastic or look-at-me wealth.

在遇到毁灭性风险的概率上,伯克希尔比其它我知道的任何公司都要低。在股东意识层面,伯克希尔的管理层和董事会比其他我熟悉的任何公司都要好(我曾经就遇到过很多股东意识超强的管理层)!伯克希尔会一直以美国资产的形式运营,避免成为美国的负债(避免需要美国财政救济)。随着时间的推移,我们的管理层有责任让自己变得非常富有,而不是渴望成为一个王朝的统治者或者我个人财富的看守者。


Our stock price will move capriciously, occasionally falling 50% or so as has happened three times in 60 years under present management. Don’t despair; America will come back and so will Berkshire shares.

在当前的管理模式下,我们的股价必然是不可预测的,就像过去的60多年一样,偶尔会下跌50%。不用沮丧,美国会回来的,伯克希尔股票也一样会涨回来的。


A Few Final Thoughts

一些最后的想法


One perhaps self-serving observation. I’m happy to say I feel better about the second half of my life than the first. My advice: Don’t beat yourself up over past mistakes – learn at least a little from them and move on. It is never too late to improve. Get the right heroes and copy them. You can start with Tom Murphy; he was the best.

一个自私自利的想法,我的后半生比前半生感觉更棒。我的建议是:不要为过去的错误过分自责——吃一堑长一智的向前看。任何时候做出改变都不迟。选择对的榜样,并模仿他们,但你成不了汤姆·墨菲,他是最棒的。


Remember Alfred Nobel, later of Nobel Prize fame, who – reportedly – read hisownobituary that was mistakenly printed when his brother died and a newspaper got mixed up. He was horrified at what he read and realized he should change his behavior.

还记得阿尔弗雷德·诺贝尔吗,后来诺贝尔奖以他命名,据报道,他在报纸上读到了自己的死亡讣告,其实是他的哥哥去世了,报纸将他和他的哥哥搞混淆了。他对读到的内容非常恐惧(报纸说“制造死亡的商人死了”),然后,他意识到,他需要改变自己的行为。


Don’t count on a newsroom mix-up: Decide what you would like your obituary to say and live the life to deserve it.

不要在意那些媒体上的混淆是非:你希望你的讣告上怎么描述你,你就下决心去过那样的生活。


Greatness doesnotcome about through accumulating great amounts of money, great amounts of publicity or great power in government. When you help someone in any of thousands of ways, you help the world. Kindness is costless but also priceless. Whether you are religious or not, it’s hard to beat The Golden Rule as a guide to behavior.

伟大从来不是堆砌财富,也不是政治上的四处宣扬或攫取权利。当你通过任何方式帮助到他人,你就是在帮助这个世界。友好并不花钱,但却价值无限。不管你是不是宗教徒,把金科玉律当作行为指导都是一件挺不容易的事。



I write this as one who has been thoughtless countless times and made many mistakes but also became very lucky in learning from some wonderful friends how to behave better (still a long way from perfect, however). Keep in mind that the cleaning lady is as much a human being as the Chairman.

我是给这样的人写的,他过去有无数次思考不周,也犯了许多错误,但幸运的是依然从一些优秀的朋友那里去学习更好的行为习惯(尽管离完美还有很远)。请记住,清洁工和董事长在人类这个维度上是完全一样的。



I wish all who read this a very happy Thanksgiving. Yes, even the jerks; it’s never too late to change. Remember to thank America for maximizing your opportunities. But it is – inevitably –capricious and sometimes venal in distributing its rewards.

祝愿所有读到这封信的人感恩节快乐!甚至包括癫佬。任何时候改变都不迟。牢记美国给予的无限机会。但有时任性和贪婪会不可避免的破坏掉奖励。


Choose your heroes very carefully and then emulate them. You will never be perfect, but you can always be better.

认真选择你的榜样,然后模仿他。你永不完美,但一直趋向完美!


About Berkshire

关于伯克希尔


Berkshire Hathaway and its subsidiaries engage in diverse business activities including insurance and reinsurance, utilities and energy, freight rail transportation, manufacturing, services and retailing. Common stock of the company is listed on the New York Stock Exchange, trading symbols BRK.A and BRK.B.

伯克希尔及其子公司是一个多样化的生意模式,经营范围包括保险和再保险、公共事业和能源、货运铁路运输、工业、服务业和零售业。常见的股票在纽约证券交易所挂牌上市,建议代码是BRK.A和BRK.B。


– End –

全文完

联系人:Marc D. Hamburg

联系电话:402-346-1400

翻译:轮回


事后都易,当下最难。不写下来,如何知道自己是怎么想的,怎么做的。


投资记录

本周交易:无

当前持仓:港币按0.913做汇率换算。


上周持仓

本周持仓

持仓平平淡淡,没有什么要说的。几个点的变化完全没有兴趣聊股票。三季报也陆续发布,看到书院同学的分析,深以为然,关键是我也看不出更全面的结论呀。找个理由安心就偷懒吧!


财报&阅读

本周没有学习财报,偶遇如下这段文字,与自己的认知高度同频共振,收录mark一下:


“这世间最好的人其实就是最世俗的普通人,惜命,好色,贪财...一个人只要具备这三点及以上(似乎还可以加上馋),那他总不至于太坏。

而那些有远大理想的人可就难说了, 这类人中固然有一部分是当真为人类世界带来了巨大的福祉(比如那些伟大的科学家、发明家), 但更多的时候还是一次次把同胞推入刀山火海推进万丈深渊。
永远要警惕那样的人,他们为了照见自己前行的理想之路,不惜砍伐尽整座森林,不惜以同胞的性命和膏血助燃”


所以,那些没有远大理想和抱负的普通人,那些拥有七情六欲的市井之徒才是我应该追求的终点,是聊以余生的希望。这个认知已经刻在心里好多年,但依然没有做到知行合一。最简单的证据就是我自以为是的清高依然在左右着我的行为。比如开车看见别人见缝插针会双标。比如,本周夫人给医院打一个多小时的电话,就为老丈人住院的医疗费用清单中有数据对不上,然后还真要回来了25块钱。我当时心里是有这么个想法:为了这点钱不值当。要是我就……时间价值也不值25块钱呀!但当时我一个字没说,一个表情眼神都没给。结果,后来聊天的时候,夫人就批评我清高,“要是你,那25块钱肯定没打算要了!”知我莫若妻也。


如此看来,我才是那个拥有远大理想和抱负的准坏人,夫人才是惜命贪财的大好人!鉴定完毕!


育儿实录

本周小宝请假一周,因为流感,在家实实在在休息5+4天,是我们打工人梦寐以求的假期呀!本来最后一天可以去学校,小宝担心功课赶不上,又担心学校一堆的工作,对就是一堆“工作”,居然有了逃避的念头,呵呵这才是人之常情。我顺便提醒妈妈,来年得让小宝做一些减法,毕竟压力大了谁都可能产生厌倦。我其实一直不明白小宝给自己这么高要求和这么自律的原因和意图是什么。可能很多人都会羡慕有这么认真听话的孩子,而我只是希望她如约长大即可,不需要早熟,不需要那么多追求。世界是平衡的,许多明面上的优秀都会在某个角落某个时候出现合情合理的代价。比如一个把成绩看得比什么都重要的优等生,可能在重大升学考试时因压力过大而出现不同程度的发挥失常;一个刻苦训练,一心想站上最高舞台的艺人,可能在关键舞台上忘词忘曲忘动作。所以呀,我还是希望小妹儿能顺其自然,喜欢就多练多做,不喜欢也可以摆摆烂,像老姐一样真性情,大不了让老爸跟着催催而已。被爸妈批评一下下又有什么关系呢?!


本周天,上钢琴课后买零食回来了,一到家,小宝就问妈妈长十斤肉了没,言下之意是,什么时候可以开始减肥了,没涨十斤那就多吃点,然后好减肥,她这个监督员可是有提成的呢!晚上,零食还剩下最后一个蛋糕,大宝一个人独吞了,被妈妈批评。家里还有一个小朋友是客人,大宝习惯性的喜欢就吃,才没那么多心思去考虑其他人的感受和需求。当然会被妈妈批评“心眼里只有自己,吃独食,都不懂待客之道”。我当时想到了为人处事的核心就是“替他人着想”或者说是“同理之心”,大宝显然天生就缺着跟筋。一来是没有人真正成为她的心头肉,所以没有那种挂心和分享的经历;其次就是物质本来就不怎么缺,没有把吃的看得多么难得;更重要的是,她就是这么单纯简单的人,不喜欢那么多弯弯绕绕。得找个机会和她聊聊这些事。这些与人相处的细节。如此想来人生还是很痛苦的,越活越痛苦,不是吗?


运动记录

本周跑步1次共计5km,本周体重64.74kg(169cm),体重如约进入合理区间,继续保持中。

事后都易,当下最难。不写下来,如何知道自己是怎么想的,怎么做的。


投资记录

本周交易:无

当前持仓:港币按0.913做汇率换算。


上周持仓

本周持仓

持仓平平淡淡,没有什么要说的。


财报&阅读

本周英文原文抄写打卡学习锁定价格的期权。摘抄如下:


在期权授予之后的十年内,公司每年能靠100亿美元净值赚到10亿美元净利润,按照它初始发行的1亿股流通股来计算,每股净利润10美元。“庸碌先生”不发放股息,而是经常拿全部利润去回购自家股票。假如公司股票的市盈率始终维持在10倍左右,那么在期权到期之日,它的涨幅会达到158%。这是因为,经过这十年的回购,届时公司的股本数会降至3870万股,每股净利润也会因此提升至25.8美元。仅仅是靠着“不给股东分红”这一点,“庸碌先生”就会变得非常富有。即便是公司业务毫无进展,他也能赚到1.58亿美元。令人讶异的是,在这十年间,哪怕“停滞公司”的净利润下降20%,“庸碌先生”赚的钱也会超过1亿美元。(2005年)


这个结果出乎我的意料,CEO被授予期权,目的是让公司能被管理的更好,而期权的结果导向是正面CEO赢,反面股东输。如果有第三种情况,解雇CEO依然需要股东付出一大笔钱给CEO。这也就解释了为什么百年老店如此难以传承。因为代理人的利益与公司股东的利益是无法完全统一的。而员工的利益仅仅只能靠自由市场的流通或者工会来维护。细细的掰开来看,挺悲哀的!许多优秀的企业最终都倒在了人性自私之下。


育儿实录

本周四,放学后,妈妈让我去车库接小宝,从车上背回家的。这小家伙周四有值班,没时间午睡。哎,累成狗回来,把脸色和情绪都丢给家里,不是个合适的做法。


晚上通过妈妈的沟通后,终于同意放弃大队部的值班工作。


晚饭后,我把她的队长肩章收起来时问小宝有啥感想。那小妮子从来不把自己的内心真实的想法告诉我。也挺好,有个复杂的女儿也挺有意思!一切操作仅凭猜,猜中了才能如意。真担心将来谁当来当我的接盘侠!


小宝终于学会了放弃,终于做减法了,这是很大的进步。然后妈妈发现她更认真了,晚上的时间安排的仅仅有条,写作业,学英语,看闲书,练钢琴,洗漱睡觉。都不需要爸妈来管理,多好的天使宝宝,睡前再找妈妈黏一会,完美。


运动记录

本周跑步一次共计5km,本周体重64.84kg(169cm),最近生活太好,这体重有按不下去的趋势。果然体重管理首选管住嘴!

事后都易,当下最难。不写下来,如何知道自己是怎么想的,怎么做的。


投资记录

本周交易:无

当前持仓:港币按0.913做汇率换算。


上周持仓

本周持仓

持仓平平淡淡,没什么体感,唯一有点思考价值的就是在茅台1430左右筹集了一颗子弹,等了有半个月,硬是等不到1400的价格,惦记了半个月,实在懒得惦记了,在1428附近打了。这不,刚打完没几天就给1400的价格了,所以去赌股价的近期涨跌是多么的不划算,无论赌对与否,都是惶惶不可终日的状态,心中有惦记,才会有痛苦。结论本周在另外一个非公开账号下加了一点点茅台,不足一手茅台的给了分众。完毕,又可以躺下装不在了。呆坐不动是最省心的,也是最难的!


财报&阅读

本周重点在翻译一段博客,等完成了再分享,其中比较重要的一段如下:

And so I do things every day, I have a set of dailyregimens(美/reɪˈʒiːm n.养生之道)that push me to get stronger and stronger. Like I said, I'm gonna be 62 years old, I'm doing things I couldn't do when I was 27 years old, to give you an idea, faster, stronger, better, I can lift more weight, but it's because we're pushing.

所以,我每天所追求的是我的生活之道--让自己更强大!就像我以前讲的,我都快62岁了,我现在能做我27岁时做不了的很多事情,给自己设定一个目标,让自己变得更快更强更好。我能承担更多,是因为我在不停的挑战自己。


这种文化和认知在我的生活经历中极少有在实践的,更多的是在文字上读过,也就仅仅是读过而已。人到中年,碰到到都是乏善可陈的石头,可能在读书考大学的过程中把读书的有效使用时长都用完了吧,瞬间明白了,这种教育还有另一个好处,成年人都一成不变!当然极有可能是我太low了,没有接触到牛人吧!


这半年来,我确实体会到了学习成长的快乐。那是一种可以持续终生的快乐!


育儿实录

本周大宝的时间效率有所提升,契机是她需要准备学校艺术节的活动,需要预留出时间来练习古筝,所以,周日早上自己调闹钟七点多就起床。


突然想到在经济学上人的行为都是以自私为前提的。娃为什么会早起,理由很简单,要么早起的诱惑(潜在好处)比睡懒觉更吸引人(更有趣),或者懒床的后果足够抵消贪睡的好处(结果惩罚)。


相比而言,人的劣根性在于,总要吃亏了才知道改弦易辙,极少有人能看别人吃一堑长自己一智的,甚至撞了南墙也不回头死磕到底的。没有高低好坏之分,仅仅是个人的选择而已。


相比而言,我倾向于严格执行所带来的诱惑(潜在好处)大于自己懒散获得的休闲。这样的体感是从好到更好,属于两利相交取其大。而不是懒惰带来的后果(结果惩罚)大于懒惰带来的休闲。因为这样的体感是在坏与更坏中选者相对不坏的结果,体感差异较大,属于两害相权取其轻。希望能引导孩子能严格要求自己,体验更好的人生!比如,晚自习把作业完成了就在车上多听一首音乐。比如早起的娃可以买饭团吃。比如得奖了可以发牛肉干等等,其核心只有一个,让自己在好与更好中做选择,无论怎么选都会体感很好!


运动记录

本周未跑步,本周体重64.94kg(169cm),不会还没到40岁就控制不住体重了吧,洗脸的时候一把肉在指缝之间流转,不能接受,还是要抗争一下的!

《Richer Wiser Happier》(《更富有、更睿智、更快乐),是《The Investor's Podcast Network》(《投资者播客联盟》)的系列节目之一。在后院阅读@哈尼美女的翻译版本不到一半,被震撼了。对很多人有用,在征求同意后直接扣出她节选的英文,自行翻译。一来是提升英语能力,可以和美女博士对答案。另一个是尊重她人的版权和付出,尽量不拷贝搬运原文。以下是节选内容,采用逐段翻译。有兴趣的朋友可以看原文博客!


主持人:威廉・格林

嘉    宾:托尼・罗宾斯


William Green (27:31):

威廉・格林


And when I ask people on Twitter for questions they'd like me to ask you, someone called Misha Sharikov said, "How do you deal with deep emotional adversity?" And I'm wondering if you could give us your perspective on how to take control of our minds so that when these extreme challenges come up, whether it's COVID or business challenges or health challenges, how do we actually deal with it so that they don't wreck our lives?

当我在推特上问大家有什么问题需要我问您的时候,有一位叫米沙·沙里科夫的网友说:“你如何面对极度的情感困境?”我也在想,如果是你在面临巨大挑战时会如何控制自己的理智,是否可以分享关于这方面的个人经历?比如说面对疫情挑战,面对事业挑战或身体健康挑战时,我们该如何正确的面对挑战,才不至于一败涂地?



节选一,面对压力,战胜自己


Tony Robbins (28:12):

托尼・罗宾斯


Well, one thing that we all have to remember, and I write about this in this book is that we all are going to experience extreme stress in our life.It's the one commondenominator(美/dɪˈnɑːmɪneɪtər/ n.共同特征).

额,我们必须要记住一个事实,一个我写在这本书里的事实,那就是在我们的人生里都将面对极限的压力。它时人共同的特征,而非合个体特例。


I don't care if you're a multi-billionaire, I don't care if you are the greatest family, I don't care if you've tried to do everything right, something's gonna happen. Your house is gonna burn down, somebody's gonnaburglarize(美/ˈbɜːrɡləraɪz/ v.盗窃)you, you're gonna lose a dear friend, someone's gonna tell you have atumor(美/ˈtuːmər/ n.肿瘤).

世界唯一不变的就是改变,一定会有事情发生,这与你是亿万富翁无关,与你有一个完美的家庭无关,与你是否做对了所有的事情无关。你的房子可能会着火,你可能会遭遇盗窃,可能会失去一位要好的朋友,也有可能被告知自己体内有颗肿瘤。

I mean, I've been sounding very positive, aren't you sure if you're telling me talk about this?

我的意思是,我只是列举了这些可能,你真的需要我来谈谈这些吗?


But it's the truth.If it hasn't happened, it's going to, I've had all the above.

但这些都是真的,如果你的生活中还没有发生这些糟心的事,那它一定在来的路上了,那些事在我这都一一发生过了。


But what I've learned over time is, when you push through extreme stress, some people just give up and collapse and go through emotional wasted place. If you can first take care of your body and mind, if you can feed your mind 20, 30 minutes a day, something you go after, because your mind focused on that, as opposed to what comes at you in your pocket with click bait, something that makes you stronger psychologically, emotionally, physically, that's what you manufacture your life from.

当经历极度的压力时,有些人面对压力直接放弃,不战而败,置身于消极逃避的困境。我们能从自负这过程中学到什么?首先得在身体和心理上做好准备,每天花20,30分钟去梳理大脑中的内容,然后再去追逐你的想法,因为你的注意力已经在关注这些事,即使事实不如所愿,你也会因自己的准备和心理暗示而得到各方面的提升,比如在精神上,情绪上甚至是身体上变得更强大,这才是你在创造你的生活。

But then also, it's what you do with your body, where you push, like the human system respond to challenge.

同时更重要的是我们的所作所为,是我们选择的方向,比如有人为自己的同伴选择负责到底。


The more we challenge, the more we grow.

挑战越多,成长越多!


And so I do things every day, I have a set of dailyregimens(美/reɪˈʒiːm n.养生之道)that push me to get stronger and stronger. Like I said, I'm gonna be 62 years old, I'm doing things I couldn't do when I was 27 years old, to give you an idea, faster, stronger, better, I can lift more weight, but it's because we're pushing.

所以,我每天所追求的,我的生活之道--让自己变得越来越强大!就像我以前讲的,我都快62岁了,我现在能做我27岁时做不了的很多事情,给自己设定一个更快更强更好的目标,我能承担更多,是因为我在不停的挑战自己。


And when you do that, when you push through extreme stress, however you do it, three things happen.

当你也这样做,你也在极限压力下选择挑战自己,无论你的表现如何,都会有如下三个变化产生。


One, you discover how strong you really are, because we all underestimate ourselves.

第一、你会发现你自己真的非常强大,因为我们习惯了低估自己!


Two, you find out how your real friends and family are, because they're the only ones that stick around when all hell's breaking loose.

第二、你会发现时谁才是真正的朋友和家人,因为当地狱来临,失去一切时只有他们还陪在你身边!


And three, you build almost an immunity to all the stuff that used to stress you out.

第三、你会对那些曾经压垮你的压力产生防御甚至是免疫,对曾经一笑而过!


节选二、注意力在哪,你就会到哪

Tony Robbins (34:38):

托尼・罗宾斯


So you got to take control of your own mind.

这样,你才能对自己掌控自如!


And the three ways I talk about how to do that just real fast is your decisions control everything. But the most important decision is often made unconsciously.

我讲过的三种对自己掌控自如的方法,简单来讲就是你的决策控制一切。但是很多重要的决策都是下意识做出的。


So one of those is, what are you gonna focus on?

其中之一就是,你的注意力放在哪里?


Most people let their focus go wherever their phone, the people around them make it go. And whatever you focus on, you feel, even if it's not true.

大部分人会放任自己的注意力随处晃荡,手机或旁人的吸引都会牵制他们的注意力,甚至注意力会放在自己那种虚无缥缈的感觉上。


Focus equals feeling, but there are patterns of focus.

注意力和感觉很相似。但是注意力有它自己的方式。


So one of the things I teach people inseminars(美/ˈsemɪnɑːr/ n. 研讨会,培训会)is I'll ask people, we all have patterns, where do you tend to focus more on what you have or what's missing? I know you do both, but which more?

方式一、曾经在培训会上,我问现场的人们:大家的注意力更多是放在你拥有的事物上还是你失去的事物上,我知道你们两者都会兼顾,但是谁更多?


Well, during COVID, there's no question. And even with achievers, they tend to obsess about what's missing.

比如在疫情期间,毫无疑问的,甚至不乏名人达士都痴迷于我失去了什么!


And what does that do? It doesn't matter how smart you are, you cannot sustain happiness when you're constantly focusing on what's missing.

然后呢?当全部注意力都聚焦在所失之上时,人将无法获得快乐,这无关乎一个人聪明与否。


Second one, you tend to focus on what you can or cannot control.

其二、另一个我常问的问题是:你的注意力放在自己的控制范围内还是控制范围外?


Well, there's tons in life you can't control, the things you can are the things you can influence.

人的一生有很多东西都是自己无法掌控的,你能掌控的只有你能影响的事物。


With COVID, it's gone crazy, most people focus on what we can't control.

对于疫情,太疯狂了,大部分人的注意力都放在了自己的控制范围外!


Do you focus more on the past, the present or the future?

其三、你是将自己的注意力更多的放在过去,现在还是未来?


Well, a lot of people focus on the past, some the presence, some the future. But if you're focused on the past you can't change or a future that you imagine that's worse.

然而,很多人将注意力放在过去,一些人关注现在,还有一些人倾向未来。如果把注意力放在已成定局的过去或虚无缥缈的未来那都是大错特错。


If you're constantly focusing on what's missing, what you don't have, what you can't control and the past, you're gonna be pissed off, angry, sad, or depressed or some combinationthereof(adv. <正式>在其中,由此).

如果,持续不断的将注意力放在失去的,不曾拥有,无法控制或过去的事物上,你将会被难过,悲伤,愤怒和沮丧等包围。


So changing those three patterns literally can change your whole life.

所以,认真的去改变主意力的三个方式,将改变整个人生。


节选三、巅峰状态和主观感受

Tony Robbins (37:39):

托尼・罗宾斯


All I had to do is pick up my phone to be stressed out and I got to realize my happiness is pretty cheap. Good news, bad news, you're in-between it all.

曾经,我每次拿起电话就忐忑不安(有啥事发生),发现原来我的快乐来的如此廉价。自己完全被好消息和坏消息不停的左右。


And one day I met this friend of mine in India and he taught me this simple principle.

有一天,我在印度碰到了一个朋友,他教给我一些简单的原则。


He said, "My spiritual vision is to live a life where what you talk about Tony, living in a beautiful or peak state," What I called, he goes, "I call it a beautiful state. What you call a peak state is a high energy state, love, joy, determination, loyalty, commitment, appreciation, drive. These are all high energy states and when you're in them, you do the right thing.

他说,“我梦寐以求的生活就是保持一种美好的状态或者说是巅峰状态,如曾跟Tony聊起的那样。”我叫它,他继续说“我称它为一种完美的状态,也是你说的那种巅峰状态,高能量状态,有爱,有趣,有把握,忠诚,奉献,感恩,激情四溢。这些都是高能量状态,如果你处于其中,那是对的。


And then there are states, he called suffering.

同时,也有一种状态,他称之为痛苦状态。


I didn't like this because I didn't think I suffered, I'm not a sufferer. But he said, "You talk aboutlousy(美/ˈlaʊzi/ adj. <非正式>极坏的,恶劣的)states. And when people get in those low energy states, frustration, anger, sadness, worry, envy, overwhelm, we do the wrong things."

我不喜欢这种状态,因为我不认为我在痛苦,我不是受害者。但是他说“你所说的是一种负面状态。当人处于这种低能量状态时,沮丧,愤怒,悲伤,担忧,焦虑,不知所措等,身陷其中,我们就是错的。


And he said, "I just started thinking, what if, it didn't matter what happened in my life, externally, I prefer it to be a certain way, but my view was, I'm going to live in a beautiful state, some of these high energy states.

他接着说“我开始思考,如何让自己的状态不受外界的影响。外面看起来我主动选择了一种方式,但我内心的想法是我要活在一种巅峰状态下,处在一中高能量的状态中。”


It doesn't mean you're happy every moment, it might be driven, I might be hungry, it might be you're appreciative, it might be grateful, it might be fun, it might be loved. So it's not just, I'm happy all the time because that'sBS(这里的 “BS” 是英文俚语,完整形式是 “bullshit”,直译是“胡说八道”或“扯淡”), you're not all the time, it's meaningful it could be."

它不意味着我每时每刻都是开心的,我可能是被动的,饥饿的,也可能是感恩,愉快,有趣和有爱的。所以,不是说每时每刻都要快乐,那是扯淡的。不是一直那样,才可能会如此这般。


He said, "I'm going to live in that most of the time in my life. I'm committed to live that state."

他说“我要让自己尽可能活在巅峰状态里,我会尽己所能的保持那种状态。”


And I was like, "I love that, I'm gonna steal that. Because I saw all your stuff, you can still do."

然后,我就像那样“我喜爱如此(悲伤状态),还鬼使神差的那样(选择悲伤)。因为,我都看出来了,你是悲伤状态,而你还坚持己见。”


I said, "But I would change the language for me at least, I would say, life is too short to suffer. And there's always things you can't control, there's always things you wouldn't prefer, but we make them life and death instead of it's my preference."

我说,“我首先得自己说服自己,我会说,人生苦短,何必悲伤。总有事情是不受控制的,总有事情是无法选择的,让其自生自灭好了,何必让自己跟着去受罪。”


And that's why relationships get messed up and everything else.

那就是万事万物错综复杂的根本原因。


So in the book, I describe this process of how to identify what triggers you and how toextract(美/ˈekstrækt; ɪkˈstrækt/ v. 提取,提炼)it from yourself. But eventually, you start to create what you describe, which is the 90 second rule.

所以,在这本书里,我描述了如何去识别和提炼那些影响你的因素。但是最终的结果是,你需要自己去使用90秒法则。


And it's like a game, it's like, you can get out of suffering, anger, frustration, sadness, whatever in asecondwith aperceptual(美/pərˈseptʃuəl/ adj. 知觉的,感知的)shift.

它就像一个游戏,像一个感知切换,在一秒内切换掉痛苦,愤怒,沮丧和悲伤等任何负面情绪。


And the number one perceptual shift is appreciation or it could be gratitude or it could be love, but the minute you appreciate something, the suffering is gone.

排在感知切换第一的是心怀感恩,感谢或爱。一旦你感恩某物,它带来的痛苦就会随之消散!


Suffering doesn't come from the facts, suffering comes from your perception of the facts.

痛苦,本身不来源于事实,它来源于你对事实的看法。


节选四:无知的错

Tony Robbins (40:23):

托尼・罗宾斯


And I try to tell people, ignorance is not bliss, ignorance is pain, ignorance is poverty, ignorance can be death because you're ignorant to the things that could be changing your healthiervitality(美/vaɪˈtæləti/ n.生命力、活力).

我一直努力告诉别人,“傻人有傻福”是错误的,无知带来痛苦,无知导致贫穷,对一些影响生命健康的事物的无知甚至带来生命危险。


That's really what we're really talking about the 90 second rule. And I give people different techniques to break the pattern and I'm glad you used it today. That's awesome.

那是我真正想谈论的关于90秒法则的核心原则。我教给人们不同对技巧去打破注意力和感知力的惯性思维。我很高兴你今天也尝试去使用。这太了不起了!



节选五:金钱之外还有成长与快乐


William Green (41:12):

威廉・格林


There were times when your mom and your dad couldn't afford food or clothes, you really had difficulties. Now, I think it's fair to say you have hundreds of millions of dollars and you own beautiful houses and you fly on a private plane. And so you've experienced both ends of the spectrum. And a lot of people listening to this podcast, I think, share my fairytale illusion that if I become super rich, it's going to solve a lot of my problems. And I wondered if you could talk a bit about what the money does give you and what it doesn't give you having experiencedboth ends of the spectrum.

曾经,你的父母不能给你提供食物和衣服,确实经历过一段饥寒交迫的时光,但是现在,上天是公平的。你成为了百万富翁,住着漂亮的房子,拥有私人飞机。所以说,你是体验过物质生活的两个极端。今天有许多人在听这个博客,我想,我刚才分享这些梦幻般的经历可能会误导大家“如果我有钱了就能怎么怎么样”。我很好奇,从你体验过物质生活的两个极端的经历来看,钱能给我们带来什么,不能带来什么。



Tony Robbins (42:37):

托尼・罗宾斯



First, I've learned later in life, you just got to put happiness first.

首先,你需要把自己的快乐放在第一位,我也是后来才学会这一点的。


If you don't put happiness first, how many people have you seen who are incredibly wealthy who've taken their lives just in the last few years alone? You can think of fashion designers who just did this, you can think of a great guy from CNN——the food expert that we all knew, Anthony Bourdain, you can look at some great comedians that have taken their life who had more money than they could possibly spend.

如果不把快乐放在第一位,难道没见过那么多的巨富人生最后几年都过得很孤单吗?你可以想象那些时尚设计师是怎么做的,看看CNN报道的我们耳熟能详的大厨安东尼·波登,也可以看看那些伟大的喜剧演员们,他们赚的钱一辈子都花不完。


You don't need a lot of homework to see money doesn't make you happy. But what does make you happy,I found,is having a meaningful life.

你不需要做太多的功课就能看出钱不会让你开心。那什么能让你开心呢?我发现是有意义的生活!


Tony Robbins (43:07):

托尼・罗宾斯


And a meaningful life doesn't mean you're happy every moment, it just means you have a sense that you're growing and you're giving.

一种有意义的生活并不以为意你每时每刻都是开心的,它意味着你能感受到持续成长和给予的意义!


There're only two rules in the universe that seemimmutable(美/ɪˈmjuːtəb(ə)l/adj. 永恒的,不可改变的)to me, they're not my rules, they just look around everything. Universe grows or it dies, and everything universe contributes to, it's eventually eliminated by evolution.

我认为宇宙只有两种规律永恒不变,它不是只对我有效,它适用于万事万物。规律一,宇宙是动态的,要么生长要么消亡;规律二,宇宙产生的所有事物最终都会被进化所淘汰。


And so if you look at people that are happy and say, what makes people happy? The answer is progress.

如果你看到有人开心时问是什么导致了他的开心?答案是进步。


Progress equals happiness.

进步就等于开心。


A lot of people achieve a goal they work so hard for and then they go, "Is this all there is?" That's horrible. That's worse than failing because most of us when we fail, we pick ourselves up and go for it again, but if you've succeeded and you're unhappy, you're screwed basically.

许多人为了达到某一个目标,努力奋斗,然后他们成功了,“这就是全部吗?”那也太悲哀了。这结果比失败更坏,因为大部分人失败了还可以重新来过,如果一旦成功登顶,反而进无可进,面对无尽的空虚和寂寞,那就是高处不胜寒的感觉,基本上等于完蛋了!


Tony Robbins (43:44):

托尼・罗宾斯



But there's the other side. There're times when youworked your tail off(拼命工作)and you'reenthralled(美/ɪnˈθrɔːl/ vt. 迷住,使着迷),  it's not like, "Is this all there is?" you're enthralled, for how long? How long do you stay happy when this magnificent thing happens for——a year? Nine months? Six months? Three months? Three weeks? Three hours? Three days? Three minutes?"

但是还有另一个方面,时间。努力奋斗或痴迷沉醉的时间。它不像“这就是全部了吗?”痴迷的是保持这种巅峰状态的时间有多长?这种美妙的事情能维持多久?一年?九个月?六个月?三周,三天,三小时还是三分钟?


Most people are somewhere between three hours and three months, max.

大部分人能保持在三小时到三个月,顶天了!


And the reason, I believe,is you can't sit at the table of success too long——or you get fat and tired, and exhausted, and bored.

原因是,你并不能躺在功劳簿上太久,或者说,没有进步你会感到厌倦、疲惫和枯燥。


We're meant to grow. When we no longer grow, we pretty much disappear.

我们存在的意义就是成长,当成长不再,意味着我们即将消失!


节选六:挑战自我,不在乎他人评价


Tony Robbins (48:10):

托尼・罗宾斯


And so I got to a point in my life where I'm serving, I'm loving, I wouldn't stop, but I didn't need any other economics.

所以我达到了一个状态,人生的状态,热爱生活,为他人服务,即使没有任何经济利益刺激我也无法停止。


It's like, I'm not obsessed, like you said, I'm privileged to have planes, an island and all these things, but you can take all that stuff away. It doesn't change who I become as a man, that's what I own. All the other stuff can go away. And a big part of who I become as man is like…

就像你说的(不是我得瑟)我有飞机,有岛屿有其他财富,你甚至可以把这些财富都拿走。那也不会改变我成为我自己,这是我真正得到的东西,与外物无关!所有的在外财富都可以失去,唯一不变的就是我要成为什么样人。


I remember when I was getting ready to do Money: Master the Game. And I was interviewing all these billionaires, like I said and I'm looking around and seeing all these people suffering and I was just like, "This is wrong. I can't do anything, but I can do something."

我记得,当我准备去赚钱的时候,我就掌控了游戏(我掌控了金钱,而不是被金钱支配)。我采访了许多的亿万富翁,我在观察和研究这些人的经历,结果就像我喜欢的那样“这是错误的(目标只是赚钱)。我不可能全能全会(什么赚钱就做什么),但我一定可以做成一些事!”


Tony Robbins (50:20):

托尼・罗宾斯


And there's been studies and I wrote about it in Money: Master the Game, where now they can study, they can see the hormones triggering you just from yoursaliva(美/səˈlaɪvə/ n.唾液).

我在书里写了关于钱的研究:掌控金钱,现在从哪里开始学习,就从你自己的真实欲望开始研究你真正感兴趣的事情。


But you're at Starbucks and you're not rich and you just decide, "I'm going to buy the next five people or 10 people their coffee," you don't know who they're, the high that you will get from that, you can find five, six, seven hours later in most people.

比如你在星巴克,你并不富有,你只是下了个决心“要给后面5个或者10个人的咖啡买单”,你甚至不知道他们的名字,由此带来的快感,大部分人在几个小时后就消退了。


And you going and getting some toy for yourself is great, it's nice, but things don't give sustainable fulfillment. What give sustainable fulfillment for people is growth and giving. If you're growing and giving you're going to have that fulfillment. So it's not that I'm such a good guy, it's just I discovered what life's about.

比如你给自己送个玩具,这很好很有趣,但是这并不能带来持续的满足感。能带来持续不断的满足感的事情是成长和奉献。如果你正在成长,而且感受到了那种满足感。这不是我的功劳,生活原本如此,我只是恰巧发现了而已。


Tony Robbins (50:58):

托尼・罗宾斯


I have the reward that every man and woman deserves. It's the one you earn with yourself because you know, regardless of what other people know, who you've become, you know where you started, you know where you are. And self-esteem, I hate the term, it's overused, but esteem for yourself does not come because everybody tells you you're great.

我得到了是人都能得到的奖励。只有自己才是最了解自己的,不管别人是否知道,自己一定知道自己想成为谁,是从那里开始的,当前在那里。我讨厌自尊这个名称,它被滥用了,但是一个人对自己的着重是内生的,并非需要所有人来告诉你“你很棒”。



Tony Robbins (51:36):

托尼・罗宾斯



You can hear that a million times and think you're not great. You can be told by everybody you're an idiot and you go, "I'll show you. I'm gonna show you who the hell I am."

你可能听过无数遍甚至自己也认为“自己不行”。你可能被所有人认为是个白痴,但是“我会向你证明,我一定会向你证明我是谁。”


It has nothing to do with people say, it's do you face challenges regularly and find a way to overcome?

别人怎么说无关紧要,重要的是拥有直面挑战并战胜挑战它。


That's what's gonna raise your own sense of identity. That's what's gonna give you inner pride, not ego pride. I'm talking about a pride that you deserve because you've earned it. I think every man and woman deserves that.

那就是在建立你对自己特性的认知,那就是从内而外的给你自信,而不是自负。我说的自信就是你应得的,你值得拥有的自信。我认为所有人都应该得到这种自信。


事后都易,当下最难。不写下来,如何知道自己是怎么想的,怎么做的。


投资记录

本周交易:无

当前持仓:港币按0.913做汇率换算。

上周持仓

本周持仓平平淡淡,没有什么要说的。没钱只能干瞪眼,呆坐不动。有钱估计早用完了,根本就留不到现在!


财报&阅读

本周学习,原文抄写中意识到一个问题。

In recent years compensation committees too often have been tail-wagging puppy dogs meekly following recommendations by consultants, a breed not known for allegiance to the faceless shareholders who pay their fees. (If you can’t tell whose side someone is on, they are not on yours.) True, each committee is required by the SEC to state its reasoning about pay in the proxy. But the words are usually boilerplate written by the company’s lawyers or its human-relations department.

This costly charade should cease.

Directors should not serve on compensation committees unless they are themselves capable of negotiating on behalf of owners. They should explain both how they think about pay and how they measure performance. Dealing with shareholders’ money, moreover, they should behave as they would were it their own.(2002)。

大师兄精译:近年来,薪酬委员会就像温顺的小狗一样,完全听任咨询顾问的推荐方案。这些咨询顾问从一众“无名氏”股东那里收费,但从没听说过他们对股东忠心耿耿。(如果你不知道他们站在哪边,那肯定不是站在你这边。)诚然,按照美国证券交易委员会要求,每个薪酬委员会都须在股东委托文件中说明支付薪酬的理由。不过,这些文字通常都是由公司的律师或者公关部门起草,基本上都是例行公事。


这种劳民伤财的文字游戏理应终结。除非董事有能力代表股东去谈判,否则他们不应在薪酬委员会任职。他们应就以下两点做出解释:1.他们对支付薪酬是怎么看的?2.他们是如何衡量绩效的?此外,董事是在打理股东的钱,他们必须是当成自己的钱一样去行事。(2002年)

这里面有一个中级问题,那就是资本和劳力的关系。在我们的读书考试时期,学到的资本是邪恶热的,是剥削的源头,是万恶的资本主义。在参加工作以后,我们给万恶的资本主意当牛马,获取微博的工资奈以生存,现在我从巴菲特的文字看到了“万恶的资本主意被CEO被薪酬委员会欺负的不要不要的,感情资本才是受苦守难的一方。所以矛盾了,深思了,然后就没有然后了,不聊了吧。这个话题不合适展开!


原文中的两个问题1.他们对支付薪酬是怎么看的?2.他们是如何衡量绩效的?是世纪难题,就目前而言,我没有见过哪个薪酬定义团队能清晰明白的解决这两个问题。给大家加工资是因为同行工资或者市场给劳力的待遇高于自己,再不加工资就可能面临无工可用,被逼无奈需要加钱招人。之所以减工资,是因为业务收缩,行情不好,人员过剩,所以降低待遇告诉大家可以另谋高就。根本就不是巴老爷子问的两个问题的答案。


育儿实录

本周末,大宝发现自己的语文作业没带回来,周日下午上完钢琴课一起去学校拿!发现作业在周五下午都完成了,统一收到讲台上了,对大宝而言,这个完成语文作业的过程完全断片了,这是什么原因呢?这种有违常态的现象不应该发生在一个初中孩子的身上。我承认我在近几年的工作中有过类似的断片现象,之前的一个事情完全失去影响。大脑里毫无记忆留存,我明白这种状态就是事情太多,记不过来,一不小心就会出现遗漏的情况。在孩子身上同样出现,难道初中学习真的就达到了她的极限?如果达到了,那就得做减法,在我心里,孩子最重要的事情中,成绩排不进前三。需要继续观察观察。我不认为突破极限对个体一定是一件好事,除非是厚积薄发水到渠成的自然质变。


运动记录

本周跑步1次,共计5km,本周体重65.03kg(169cm)。

事后都易,当下最难。不写下来,如何知道自己是怎么想的,怎么做的。


投资记录

本周交易:无

当前持仓:港币按0.913做汇率换算。


上周持仓

本周持仓

持仓平平淡淡,没有什么要说的。本周贵州茅台分红,比例极小,没啥关注价值,但确实还没买成股票。等分众在7块以下就丢给分众吧,不值得去思考费脑细胞的事,一笔带过。


财报&阅读

本周终于又开始微信读书了,已经有大半年没有看书了,主要是英语学习占用了绝大部分时间,现在可以慢慢的回归阅读,分享一段话,来自《更富有,更睿智,更快乐》威廉·格林著,马林梅译。如果合适,我会去看英文原著和各采访博客!


       然而,作为投资者和慈善家,帕伯莱能成功完全是因为他借鉴了别人明智的想法。他说:“我是个十足的模仿者,一切都是模仿别人的……我没有任何原创的思想。”他带着无法抑制的喜悦,有意识、系统地挖掘巴菲特、芒格等人的思想,不仅为了获得投资智慧,也为了洞察如何管理自己的企业、避免犯错、建立品牌、做慈善、处理人际关系、安排时间和过幸福美满的生活。
      帕伯莱对效仿之法的钟情引发了一系列争议。独创性的作用被高估了吗?我们中的大多数人是否应该把精力放在效仿更聪明、更睿智的人身上,而不是努力创新呢?如果效仿是迈向成功的有效策略,为什么没有更多的人运用它呢?效仿他人有风险吗?我们怎样才能做到既采用这种策略使自己受益,又做真实的自己呢?


从来没有在成体系的教育中看到对“模仿”有如此高的评价,在我的意识里,模仿不是最棒的,学习时的老师要求我们要新要奇,从来没要我去模仿!其实想到尽,就应该是模仿,人类之所以进步就是在不断的模仿前人的成功经验,一个善于模仿的人才是最能活下去的人。


我没有书中的疑问,我不会因为模仿而否认创新,甚至认为模仿就是模仿,与创新何干。我认为人最根本的目的是活下去,一个对生存充满压力的人,对创新的渴望没有什么强烈的欲望,有的只是对更好的活着的实用主义追求。我注定将来会走在模仿巴芒的道路上,一去不返!


育儿实录

本周小宝参加的合唱团要表演,她既是演员又是主持人,特意找妈妈说:“又要买衣服,又要化妆,要花好多钱了!要不就用一个妆,一套衣服吧!”妈妈直接说:“妈有钱,买就是拉!”我补充“参加这些活动比考满分要重要,好好参加!”培养一个大手花钱的娃简单,无非是放纵自己的欲望和虚荣。但是养出一个懂节省而又自信的娃确实是一门玄学。再来一遍我可能没法复制。


本周又兑换牛肉干了,大宝三科作业加奖状,一次性兑换2*18个牛肉干,小宝兑换2*12个牛肉干。没办法,牛肉干买的没有兑的快!所以规则更新,牛肉干和钱都可以兑换,一个牛肉干等价一块钱。两个娃一起,清空了牛肉干的存货,还需要兑50块钱!看着她们一门心思的想把老爸的牛肉干兑破产,这种成就感看着就得劲!她们每次在写家庭作业的时候估计都在想牛肉干!因为五个满分就能兑换一个香辣味的牛肉干!


大宝本周出第三个月的月考成绩,超乎想象的好,本次考主三门,上个月中考大宝班级第一罕见的第一名没有一个单科王。这次依然是班级第一,语文班级第一,英语年级第一!满满惊喜!我承认这个有点牛!毕竟面对一堆预科生,动不动就是啥啥都学了,啥啥都会科的开挂选手,她能力压群魔着实不简单。这次我给他的建议是空杯心态,第一不是你喂养的宠物,不要对它有执念,正常表现就可以,没有心理压力!更何况,她现在还带着一门钢琴在学!时间上还是有所保留!


养孩子是个玄学,某种程度上都是事与愿违对多,终究而言还是有一些底层逻辑可循:当习惯和心态养成了,总是不断的带来惊喜,而当习惯或性格没养好,带来的总是惊吓!与其说培养孩子,不如说是父母在孩子面前做人!父母做人有多成功,孩子表现的就可能会有多优秀!将自己和孩子双标是没法形成合力,也没法亲子和谐,更不可能让孩子单方向努力!


运动记录

本周未跑步,本周体重65.3kg(169cm),持续踢中超标,这两周就放开了吧,后面又减肥的机会来!